Oil marketing firms looking at higher profits on improved marketing margin, inventory gains

New Delhi: Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), including Indian Oil (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), are likely to deliver robust financial results for the fourth quarter ended March on the back of elevated marking margins and large inventory gains due to increase in crude oil prices.

“We expect downstream PSUs to report sharply higher EBITDA led by around Rs 3.75 per liter of increase in marketing margins for auto fuels amid quarter-on-quarter decline in global product prices and large adventitious gains amid a sharp $14 per barrel increase in end-period crude price, which will be partly offset by lower underlying refining margins,” equity research firm Kotak said in a report.

The firm also expects a sharp sequential decline in profitability for upstream firms due to a $5 per barrel fall in global crude oil prices and a $8-8.5 per barrel of subsdy discount due to the shortfall in budgeted provision for Kerosene subsidies.

RIL to report a marginal increase in consolidated profits as lower standalone profits, due to weaker refining margins and stronger Rupee, will be offset by higher contribution from Jio and retail. Also, gas utility GAIL’s profits are expected to decline sequentially amid lower gas marketing and LPG contribution.